taken from an anonymous forum thread | There are two basic schools of discipline you'll encounter when developing into a complete Texas Holdem poker player. The first is the school of odds, outs, and mathematics. Some poker players are very calculating and mathematical, and are mathematical geniuses (David Sklansky, Chris Ferguson). Other players are less confined to the mathematics of the game, and work more off of instinct, reads, and guts (Jennifer Harman, Gus Hansen). Needless to say, these top professionals have mastered both sides of the game and can switch their game up in an instant.
Poker players must incorporate both schools into their poker game to become a complete and successful player. This section of our website will present the simple poker odds and poker charts to quickly help you develop the 'by the book' Texas Holdem strategy. Charts are easy to follow. However, as mentioned in other areas of this website, charts, odds, etc. can only get you so far. Situational thinking and analysis is so important when playing the game of poker, and this comes from experience. It's very important to understand the math and odds behind poker. However, a strictly by the book poker player will get crushed by the poker player who has the complete game - one who understands the poker odds but also works off his opponent's fear, reads, tells, and his own instinct and experience.
I think it's very important to understand the odds and probabilities in Texas Holdem. It's isn't the one and only deciding factor when making a decision, but it is one of several supporting arguments. And, fortunately, the poker odds are really the easiest thing to master in Texas Holdem. | Texas Holdem Chart - Starting Hands, Groupings and Rankings
Group 0: AA KK
Group 1: QQ JJ AKs
Group 2: TT AK AQs AJs KQs
Group 3: AQ 99 ATs KJs QJs KTs
Group 4: 88 AJ KQ QTs A9s JTs AT A8s
Group 5: KJ 77 QJ KT QT JT A7s K9s Q9s T9s J9s
Group 6: 66 55 44 33 22 A5s A6s A4s A3s A2s
Group 7: A9 K9 98s 87s 76s Kxs(?) T8s(?) 97s(?) 86s(?) 54s(?)
(?) Denotes play depending on weakness/strength of table and players, late/button position, number of limpers and other factors.
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| Texas Holdem Chart - Outs and Pot Odds
If you don't like memorizing charts then there are some shortcuts that can be used. For example, if you have 1 to 9 outs and the turn and river cards are yet to be seen then you can multiply your outs times 4 to come within 1 percentage point of the true chances of hitting your card. This covers the inside straight draw(4 outs), 2 overs(6 outs), the open ended straight draw(8 outs) and the flush draw(9 outs).
For example, 2 overs is 6 outs multiplied by 4 is 24% which is your approximate chance of getting at least one of your overs. |
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| Simple Poker Odds
Here we will present some basic scenarios so you can see what your odds are of getting dealt certain cards or making certain hands.
If you'd like a free Texas Hold'em Odds Calculator, there is a great downloadable application provided by Cambridge University's 'Card Playing Society'. The tool allows you to pick the cards for up to 7 players and have them play head-to-head up to 1,000,000 hands, and will then give the percentages of which hand won. The application allows you to select which poker game you're playing, either 5-Stud, 7-Stud, or Texas Holdem. You may then select how many cards the players will stay in for (up to 7), whether it's a high game, low game, or split game, and then how many deals you'd like them to play with those specific hands (up to 1,000,000). The application will show the percentages of which hand won, and how it came about winning (pair, flush, etc). It's a great tool to help figure out odds, without calculating them yourself. I would recommend running all your scenarios against the 1,000,000 deals option. You can download the application here: Poker Hand Analyzer From Cambridge.
Alternatively, you may want to check out Texas Calculatem - the ultimate poker odds calculator that can provide you on the fly odds while playing at Party Poker or Empire Poker. The software provides a table overlay so you can see the numbers on your poker table as you play! Texas Calculatem is an excellent poker tool, and they offer a free trial version, check it out.
| Texas Holdem Poker Odds & Probabilities
Here are some common Texas Holdem poker probabilities of various scenarios so you can understand your chances when trying to make a winning hand. The card pictures illustrate the hands and scenarios described.
| Pre-Flop Odds & Probabilities
Probability of Being Dealt:
A Pocket Pair:
5.9%
Pocket Rockets:
.45%
Two Suited Cards:
23.5%
Two Connected Cards:
15.7%
| Flop Odds & Probabilities
Probability of Flopping:
A Flush When Holding 2 Suited Cards:
Hole Cards:
Flopping:
.84%
A Flush Draw When Holding 2 Suited Cards:
Hole Cards:
Flopping:
11%
Trips or Quads When Holding a Pair:
Hole Cards:
Flopping:
11.8%
A Pair, 2 Pair, Trips, or Quads When Holding Two Unpaired Cards:
Hole Cards:
Flopping:
32.4%
| Turn & River Odds & Probabilities
After the flop, the decisions in Texas Holdem get a bit tougher on what your best action should be. Understanding pot odds will help in this part of the poker game. Check out our Texas Hold'em Pot Odds article to learn more about pot odds, what pot odds are, calculating your pot odds, implied odds, etc. You can also view our Texas Hold'em Pot Odds Chart here.
Probability of Hitting:
An Inside Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:
Flop:
16.5%
An Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:
Flop:
31.5%
A Flush Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:
Flop:
35%
A Flush Draw or Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:
Flop:
54.1%
| Odds & Probabilities of Hands Winning (Approximate)
Here are some common Texas Holdem poker hand match-ups, so you can see your approximate chances of winning.
Higher Pocket Pair vs Lower Pocket Pair
81.5%
18.5%
Over-Cards vs Lower Pocket Pair
46%
54%
Dominated Hand
75%
25%
Severely Dominated Hand
92.6%
7.4%
Two Unsuited Overcards vs Two Unsuited Undercards
63%
37%
67%
33% |
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